Get A World Without Agriculture: The Structural Transformation PDF

By C. Peter Timmer

ISBN-10: 0844742791

ISBN-13: 9780844742793

The progressively diminishing function of agriculture on the planet economy_a mostly unperceived, poorly understood, yet profound change_is as transformational for developmental monetary notion as gravity has been for physics. C. Peter Timmer argues that policymakers who forget about this basic shift probability mismanaging their monetary improvement regulations, with critical effects. The 'structural transformation' of constructing economies has 4 major good points: a falling percentage of agriculture in fiscal output and employment; a emerging proportion of city financial task in and smooth providers; the migration of rural staff to city settings; and a demographic transition in delivery and loss of life premiums that usually results in a spurt in inhabitants development prior to a brand new equilibrium is reached. even if all constructing economies event those transitions, dealing with the ensuing political outcomes has been an enormous problem for policymakers during the last half-century. attempting to cease the structural transformation easily doesn't paintings. Bolstering the skill of the bad to profit from swap, notwithstanding, does. Investments in human assets, for example_especially in schooling and health_are the main promising techniques to easing the transitions of a constructing countryOs structural transformation. Such recommendations require major public-sector assets and coverage help to reinforce rural productiveness and depend upon political approaches which are delicate to the pressures generated by way of the structural transformation. constructing effective coverage mechanisms to lead constructing economies in the course of the structural transformation may be a concern of global governments within the twenty-first century. This monograph, an international with out Agriculture, used to be the 2007 Henry Wendt Lecture, brought on the American firm Institute in Washington, D.C. on October 30, 2007. The Wendt Lecture is introduced each year through a student who has made significant contributions to our knowing of the fashionable phenomenon of globalization and its results for social welfare, govt coverage, and the growth of liberal political associations.

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Extra info for A World Without Agriculture: The Structural Transformation in Historical Perspectives (Henry Wendt Lecture Series)

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Because AgGAPshr is defined in 36 A WORLD WITHOUT AGRICULTURE such a way that it is negative for nearly all observations, the net impact of higher world agricultural and energy prices in Asian countries (through their impact on the overall domestic agricultural terms of trade) is to reduce the level of income inequality. In sharp contrast, the impact of domestic policy AgToT is negative, although the coefficient on AgEMPshr is not significant. Reverse causation seems to be the only plausible explanation for such an impact, with widening sectoral income distribution actually causing domestic agricultural policy to respond with greater price incentives.

Finally, the gap is widening between labor productivity in the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors, presenting a major challenge to policymakers seeking to stay on a balanced path during the structural transformation. 1 The differences fall into five basic categories: 49 50 A WORLD WITHOUT AGRICULTURE • “New” and more difficult initial conditions confronting policymakers • Rising opposition from rich countries, both in the form of protection of their own farmers and concerns over losing their export markets • A relatively stagnant shelf of available agricultural technologies that can be easily borrowed and widely adopted by farmers • International aid donors who have been distracted from their core mission by development fads and pressures from “singleissue” interest groups • A new connection between food and fuel prices that complicates the design of appropriate food policies.

Today’s very poor countries in Africa and Central Asia, on the other hand, face low population densities in their low productivity areas; hence, building rural infrastructure to raise productivity in these areas seems prohibitively expensive. Second, the real prices of agricultural commodities have been very low in historical terms, thus making it difficult to justify investments whose payoff will be increased production of exactly these low-valued commodities. 5 After that, rice prices climbed gradually until they roughly doubled by 2007 and then spiraled upward in 2008, doubling yet again.

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A World Without Agriculture: The Structural Transformation in Historical Perspectives (Henry Wendt Lecture Series) by C. Peter Timmer


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